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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-16 10:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEAK DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.8, -126.0 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...WEAK DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 126.0W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 126.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Very little motion is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160853 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 126.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 126.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-16 10:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 08:52:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 08:52:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-16 10:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160847 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 The center of the depression continues to be located on the north side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36 hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone. The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but weakening should begin thereafter. The system should degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days. The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest. The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 12.6N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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