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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-09-16 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 160251 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-16 04:47:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 02:47:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 02:47:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-16 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 For the past several days, convection has developed repeatedly near the center of the depression, only to dissipate a few hours later. This trend has continued today, and the depression is currently at a convective minimum. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Despite the lack of intensification so far, most of the guidance continues to show that the depression will become a tropical storm sometime in the next couple of days. Only the LGEM keeps the system weak throughout the forecast, though so far that has been a good forecast. For now, my forecast continues to follow the intensity consensus and shows very gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Given the low shear and moderate SSTs, it would still be a little surprising if the depression never strengthens. The depression continues to slow down, and is now drifting westward at about 2 kt. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and the global models continue to show little motion for the next day or so while the cyclone remains trapped in weak steering flow. After about 24 h, a slow turn toward the north is expected in response to a mid-level trough located well to the north. A turn back toward the west should occur once the subtropical ridge becomes re-established around day 4. The NHC forecast remains near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.0N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-16 04:42:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 16.0, -125.4 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-09-16 04:41:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160241 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.4W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.4W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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