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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-09-15 11:00:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150859 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 5 14(19) 12(31) 10(41) 5(46) 1(47) 1(48) 15N 125W 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-15 11:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY HEADING WEST... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.9, -124.5 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 15
2017-09-15 11:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150859 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY HEADING WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 124.5W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 124.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A very slow westward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system could become a Tropical Storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-15 11:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150859 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Just like it has on several previous occasions already, convection has decreased near the center of the depression. That said, the fact that there even is deep convection near the center is still an improvement compared to 24 hours ago. The estimated intensity remains 30 kt based on an average of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. There is no change in the reasoning behind the intensity forecast, and if convection near the center of the depression can persist, the cyclone may finally begin to slowly intensify. The intensity forecast is still based on a selective consensus of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF, since the significant intensification shown by the HMON and COAMPS models seems unlikely, given the current structure of the cyclone. A couple recent microwave images indicate that the center remains somewhat ill-defined. My best estimate of the initial motion is 270/4 kt, but this is based in part on continuity from the previous advisory. Little change was required to the track forecast since the depression remains embedded within weak steering flow and is not expected to move very much throughout the 5 day period. The models continue to show a slow northward drift in a couple of days, followed by a slow turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge begins to build to the northwest. My forecast is close to HCCA, but gives a little extra weight to the ECMWF since it seems to have performed well for the depression so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.9N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-09-15 10:59:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150859 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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