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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-09-15 10:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150844 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 27.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 27.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 26.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 27.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Max Graphics
2017-09-15 07:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 05:32:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 03:42:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Max (EP1/EP162017)
2017-09-15 07:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAX RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 the center of Max was located near 17.0, -98.2 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Max Public Advisory Number 8A
2017-09-15 07:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150531 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Max Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 100 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 ...MAX RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 98.2W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm Warning from Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Max was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 98.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Max will continue to move over the high terrain of southern Mexico during the next several hours. The effect of the high terrain has caused Max to weaken, and the maximum sustained winds are now 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Max is expected to dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Despite weakening, Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These torrential rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-15 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150253 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Convection associated with an area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized during the past 12 hours, with an increase in banding over the western portion of the circulation. A Dvorak classification of 2.0 from TAFB suggests that the intensity is around 30 kt. The system is currently embedded within an area of light to moderate easterly shear. This should not prevent the system from gradually strengthening while it moves over warm water during the next couple of days. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause an increase in southwesterly shear, which could become quite strong by days 4 and 5. As a result, weakening is expected late in the forest period. The NHC intensity forecast is between the higher statistical guidance and the lower dynamical models. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/19 kt. A high pressure ridge currently over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to weaken as the aforementioned trough develops over the central Atlantic by early next week. This should cause a significant reduction in the forward speed of the depression over the weekend. There is some spread in the track guidance later in the period, with the GFS taking a stronger cyclone more northward, while the EC takes a weaker system more westward. The NHC track is between these solutions and is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.7N 25.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 11.2N 27.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 11.5N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 11.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 11.5N 31.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 11.8N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 12.8N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.4N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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