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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-15 10:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 08:53:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 08:53:08 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-15 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150850 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time, the structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days. However, the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high shear over the cyclone by day 4. This should result in weakening as indicated in the forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. The depression is being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The same trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest beyond 3 days. The NHC track is very close to HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These two models have been performing very well so far this season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.6N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-15 10:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 15 the center of Fourteen was located near 10.6, -27.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 2
2017-09-15 10:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 27.3W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 27.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later today or tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-09-15 10:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 150844 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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