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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-14 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 During the afternoon hours, the mid-level center of the depression became completely removed from the now exposed low-level center. A small tight swirl embedded within a broader, elongated, low-level circulation is still evident, but deep convection is limited to a band displaced about 60 n mi to the west of the center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Given the poor convective structure of the depression, little change in intensity is expected for the next day or so. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF both forecast that the upper-level wind pattern will become more favorable for intensification. Once that happens, most of the intensity guidance forecasts that the cyclone will begin to steadily strengthen, especially after about 72 h. My forecast is a little higher than the previous NHC forecast at 96 h and 120 h, and is very close to IVCN. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past 6 hours. The initial motion estimate assumes at least some movement, and is a rather uncertain 270/02 kt. The global models agree that the cyclone will remain trapped in weak steering flow throughout the forecast period, but vary greatly on how much it will move. A complicating factor is that the GFS suggests that the low-level center may reform underneath the mid-level center to the south. My forecast assumes that the current center of circulation will persist, but a larger change may be required if such a reformation occurs. The new official track forecast is slower than the previous one for the first 36 h, but is close after that, and still shows little movement throughout the forecast period. The track forecast is based heavily on the ECMWF model, especially beyond day 2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-14 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRAWLING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.1, -121.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 10
2017-09-14 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRAWLING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 121.3W ABOUT 920 MI...1475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow westward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Very gradual strengthening is forecast for the next two days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-09-14 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 15N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 19(34) 10(44) 9(53) 2(55) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-09-14 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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