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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-15 16:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression has not really improved in organization, and there still appears to be east-northeasterly shear displacing the deep convection to the southwest of the center. The intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The shear over the depression is expected to decrease soon, reaching a minimum in about 24-36 hours. Therefore, some strengthening appears reasonable, and the depression may finally be able to become a tropical storm on Saturday. An increase in easterly shear should lead to weakening by the end of the forecast period. Some of the models contained in ICON seem overblown on the cyclone's intensification, so the NHC forecast is lower than the intensity consensus and lies closest to the SHIPS model and HCCA. The subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to push the cyclone slowly west-southwestward through 24 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge will develop, which should cause the cyclone to drift northward through days 3 and 4. A re-establishment of the ridge by day 5 should impart a faster westward motion by the end of the forecast period. Based on the latest model guidance, the new NHC forecast is a little west of and faster than the previous official forecast, especially on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.9N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.5N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 15.6N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 16.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.2N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-09-15 16:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 151440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 6 13(19) 11(30) 6(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) 15N 125W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 1(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-15 16:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 14:40:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 14:40:05 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 16
2017-09-15 16:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 151439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 125.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 125.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.1N 126.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.2N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-15 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 15 the center of Fourteen was located near 11.4, -28.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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