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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-09-14 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 142034 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 2 8(10) 13(23) 8(31) 13(44) 3(47) 1(48) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-09-14 22:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 142034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 123.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 123.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 124.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 125.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-14 16:39:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:39:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:39:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-14 16:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141434 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The depression is still poorly organized, as about 15 kt of easterly shear continues to separate the low- and mid-level circulation centers. The initial intensity remains 30 kt given that the cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The SHIPS model shows the shear relaxing by 24 hours, and with the cyclone over 27-28C water, some slow strengthening is predicted. The cyclone begins to move into a drier and more stable airmass by days 4 and 5, with the shear possibly increasing again, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/04 since there haven't been any recent microwave passes. The depression is currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. This feature weakens with time, leaving the cyclone is a region of weak steering currents, with most of the guidance favoring some slow poleward motion late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is close to the latest HFIP consensus aid HCCA and is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-14 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.4, -122.8 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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