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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2017-09-05 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 20:41:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 21:38:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-05 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052038 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 The small area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized during the past several hours, with deep convection forming over the center. ASCAT data showed a well-defined circulation with winds of about 30 kt. Thus, a tropical depression has formed, with maximum winds estimated at 30 kt. While the cyclone is currently experiencing westerly shear, most of the guidance indicate the shear should gradually lessen. Combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, this should promote strengthening. The shear could increase again in a few days, so the intensity forecast will be leveled off at that time. The NHC wind speed prediction is near or slightly higher than the model consensus, but could be conservative. The depression has been drifting eastward during the day. For the next couple of days, the cyclone isn't expected to move much as it is caught in an area of light winds in the mid-levels. By Friday, a ridge should build over Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which is likely to steer the system southwestward at a faster pace. The NHC forecast is on the southern side of the guidance, since models in that area tend to have a northward bias, between the corrected consensus and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.4N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.2N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 21.8N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 21.4N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 19.7N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-09-05 22:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 052036 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) LA PESCA MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 34 3 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 9(27) 4(31) X(31) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 2 7( 9) 7(16) 8(24) 12(36) 7(43) X(43) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) 15(32) 7(39) X(39) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-05 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 the center of Thirteen was located near 22.4, -96.7 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-09-05 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 96.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Mexican state of Veracruz should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and the system should drift eastward and southward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain offshore of Mexico through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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