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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-08-24 04:38:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240238 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the east of the previous advisory position. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/2. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move on a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48-72 h, and this motion should bring the center inland over southern Texas. Later, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the southwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains. As a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and move very slowly just inland of the coast. There is a major spread amongst the large-scale models from 72-120 h, with the UKMET forecasting a slow northward motion into eastern Texas, the GFS a southwestward motion over Texas, and the ECMWF a cyclonic loop that moves the system back over the Gulf of Mexico. Given the uncertainty, the new forecast track shows a slow motion over southern Texas during that time, with a change from the small right turn of the previous forecast to a small left turn. Overall, the track lies a little to the right of the consensus models through 72 h. An upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico appears to be weakening, and as this happens Harvey should end up in a low shear environment. This should allow strengthening over deep warm water in the western Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly to show Harvey explicitly becoming a hurricane in 48 h, and some additional strengthening could occur between the 48 h point and landfall. After landfall, Harvey is expected to weaken. However, the forecast track keeps the system close enough to the Texas coast that this weakening is likely to be slower than normal. Since Harvey has moved slower than anticipated during the past 6-12 h, warnings are not yet required for portions of the Texas coast. Warnings are likely to be issued sometime on Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions of the Texas coast beginning on Friday. 2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. 3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. 4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 22.8N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 24.1N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 25.4N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 26.6N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/0000Z 28.5N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-08-24 04:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 240237 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 5(23) 5(28) 5(33) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 4(21) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) 5(25) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 3(19) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 5(22) 4(26) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 6(24) 4(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) 7(39) 5(44) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 17(29) 6(35) 5(40) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 7(31) 2(33) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20(27) 6(33) 3(36) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 18(42) 6(48) 4(52) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 2(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 30(43) 10(53) 7(60) 4(64) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 4(20) 4(24) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 12(25) 6(31) 5(36) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 19(50) 7(57) 3(60) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) 3(23) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 21(57) 6(63) 2(65) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 4(25) 3(28) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 22(59) 3(62) 2(64) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27) 2(29) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 22(56) 3(59) 2(61) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) 1(23) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 40(66) 8(74) 4(78) 2(80) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 10(37) 4(41) 2(43) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 2(17) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 21(28) 10(38) 3(41) 4(45) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 2(10) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 29(41) 10(51) 2(53) 3(56) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) 2(19) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 29(47) 7(54) 2(56) 3(59) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 1(20) 2(22) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 44(49) 13(62) 2(64) 2(66) 2(68) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 2(23) X(23) 2(25) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 7(21) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-24 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 the center of Harvey was located near 21.9, -92.6 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 14
2017-08-24 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...HARVEY DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 92.6W ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area Thursday morning. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday or Friday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a tropical storm later tonight or Thursday and a hurricane Friday or Friday night. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-08-24 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240236 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 92.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 92.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.1N 94.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.4N 95.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.6N 96.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 92.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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