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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-06 04:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060238 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 Convection continues near the center of the depression, although it isn't very curved at this time. Overall, westerly shear is keeping most of the thunderstorm activity in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Dvorak estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Global models suggest that the westerly shear should gradually subside over the next few days while the depression moves over very warm water. This is a recipe for strengthening, and the official forecast is similar to the previous advisory. More guidance members are showing the cyclone eventually becoming a hurricane than the last cycle, so the peak intensity is bumped up 5 kt, staying a bit above the model consensus. Microwave data indicate the depression continues to drift eastward. The cyclone should gradually turn southward and southwestward as high pressure builds near Texas, along with an increase in forward speed forecast on Friday. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement on the track forecast during the past 6 hours, and little change was made to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance, since models in that part of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tend to have a northward bias. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.1N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 21.8N 95.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 20.8N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 19.4N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-09-06 04:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 060237 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) TAMPICO MX 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 14(30) 6(36) X(36) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 2 8(10) 7(17) 9(26) 18(44) 8(52) X(52) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 9(20) 16(36) 6(42) X(42) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-06 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 the center of Thirteen was located near 22.2, -96.4 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 2
2017-09-06 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060236 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 96.4W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Mexican state of Veracruz should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and the system should drift eastward and southward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain offshore of Mexico through late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a hurricane on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-09-06 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060236 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 96.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 96.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 96.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.8N 95.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 95.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.2N 95.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.8N 95.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 98.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 96.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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