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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-05 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 The tropical depression is displaying a well-defined center of circulation east of decaying cold cloud tops as shown in the beautiful 1-minute experimental visible imagery from the new GOES-16 satellite. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB - along with the character of the tight center - suggest that the maximum winds remain about 30 kt. However, the exposed center of this system is symptomatic of a highly sheared environment due to the 30 kt upper-level easterlies impinging upon Eleven-E. These shearing winds should not relent as a strong mid- to upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico will remain in place. Additionally, the tropical depression will be moving into increasingly dry and stable air. The system should lose all deep convection and become a remnant low in a day or two, which is in agreement with all dynamical and statistical guidance. Eleven-E is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 kt, mainly due to the aforementioned ridge to its north. As the tropical depression loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex, it should drift slowly northwestward or northward in weak low-level flow. The official track forecast is adjusted to the right (northeastward) of the previous advisory and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.6N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 19.3N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 21.3N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112017)
2017-08-05 04:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF DEPRESSION NEARING SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 the center of Eleven-E was located near 18.6, -111.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 3
2017-08-05 04:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 ...CENTER OF DEPRESSION NEARING SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 111.0W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 111.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The tropical depression should slow its forward speed and turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast and the system should become a remnant low by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-08-05 04:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-08-05 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.3N 112.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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