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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2017-08-04 22:43:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2017 20:43:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2017 20:43:59 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-08-04 22:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 The tropical depression remains strongly sheared from the northeast. Since the last advisory, small vortices have been seen rotating around a larger/primary center that has reformed or consolidated a little closer to the convection. Due to this relocation, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt. Since there are no in-situ or scatterometer observations available, the initial intensity has been raised accordingly, to 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, and there are still no models that show the cyclone becoming a tropical storm. Based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics, the 850-200 mb shear should increase to near 30 kt by tomorrow, accompanied by a sharp decrease in available moisture. Based primarily on the HWRF and ECMWF models, the forecast calls for Eleven to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate by 96 h. Given the hostile environment, it is possible that weakening could occur even quicker, as depicted by the GFS and experimental HMON. The track forecast has been shifted to the west for the first 12 hours due to the relocation of the center in that direction. Other than that, very little change has been made to the official track forecast. The global models remain in good agreement that the depression will continue generally west-northwestward, steered by the low- to mid-level steering flow associated with the ridge to the northeast. Since the low-level winds are weak, the depression should slow substantially before it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 18.0N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.7N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 19.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 20.6N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 20.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112017)
2017-08-04 22:38:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 the center of Eleven-E was located near 18.0, -110.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 2
2017-08-04 22:38:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 110.2W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 110.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued west-northwest or northwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the depression is expected become a remnant low by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-08-04 22:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042038 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 17 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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