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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2017-08-04 16:48:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2017 14:48:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2017 14:48:26 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-04 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041443 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 confirms that the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has a well-defined low-level center. Deep convection has persisted since yesterday, mainly in the western portion of the circulation, and Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a consensus 1.5. Based on these factors, the system has been classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The depression is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. The shear is not expected to relax during the next few days, and this should keep the system weak. In fact, I currently have no guidance that suggests that the system will ever become a tropical storm. The intensity forecast therefore shows no change in intensity until the system becomes post-tropical in a couple of days due to the persistent shear and a drier environment. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 13 kt, though the initial speed is somewhat uncertain since the center has only recently become well defined. Since the cyclone is forecast to remain weak, it should be steered primarily by the low- to mid-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that this will keep the depression moving in a near straight-line heading for the next day or two. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone should slow down substantially while it dissipates early next week. The track forecast is very close to the model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.7N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 19.2N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 20.7N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-08-04 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 041443 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-08-04 16:42:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 041442 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 112.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 109.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112017)
2017-08-04 16:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...THE BRIEF HIATUS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ENDS... ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Aug 4 the center of Eleven-E was located near 17.7, -109.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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