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Tropical Depression Emily Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-08-01 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 010834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-08-01 10:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010831 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 80.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 80.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.4N 78.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.4N 70.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 38.5N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 80.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Emily Graphics
2017-08-01 04:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 02:47:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 03:23:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-01 04:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010243 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Mesonet observations from the area north and northwest of Lake Okeechobee indicate that Emily has an elongated surface circulation. Although some deep convection has redeveloped near and to the east of the center, Doppler velocity data from the Tampa and Melbourne WSR-88D radars only show winds of 30-35 kt at an elevation of about 5000 ft. Therefore, Emily's maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 25 kt, primarily within the thunderstorm activity east and southeast of the center. Emily's center, as seen on radar, has been moving east-southeastward for much of the evening. However, it seems to have recently turned eastward, and the initial motion estimate is 095/8 kt. Emily is embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that lies off the southeastern coast of the United States, and the subtropical ridge to the east should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward soon, move off the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday, and then accelerate over the western Atlantic during the next several days. Although all of the track models agree on this scenario, the GFS is a notable outlier compared to the other models, showing a slower solution that leans more to the left. Because the other models are so tightly clustered, the updated NHC track forecast leans closer to them and is a little bit faster than the previous forecast. There is low confidence in how strong Emily will get, or what exactly it will be, during the next few days. The global models keep Emily embedded within or near a weak frontal zone while it moves across the western Atlantic, suggesting that the cyclone's center may not move continuously but rather jump and reform from time to time along the boundary. These models also do not show Emily restrengthening much, even over the warm ocean, and phase-space diagrams suggest that the cyclone may become more cold core during the next few days. On the other hand, the more tropical models, like SHIPS and HWRF, show a little bit more re-intensification. Given that vertical shear is forecast to increase, and that Emily likely isn't purely tropical to begin with, the new NHC intensity forecast sides with the global models just a little bit more than SHIPS and HWRF. Based on this, Emily is forecast to intensify just a bit and become extratropical in about 48 hours. The extratropical low is expected to dissipate by day 5. The primary threat with Emily continues to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND OVER FLORIDA 12H 01/1200Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 32.1N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 33.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 36.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z 38.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emily (AT1/AL062017)
2017-08-01 04:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EMILY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Emily was located near 27.5, -81.0 with movement E at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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