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Tropical Depression Emily Graphics
2017-07-31 22:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 20:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 20:48:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-31 22:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312043 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Emily's appearance in satellite and radar imagery has degraded significantly since the previous advisory, with only weak convection noted near the low-level center. The deepest convection is well removed from the center and lies across southern Florida and the Keys. Since Doppler velocity values at any altitude have decreased to less than 40 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, resulting in Emily being downgraded to a depression on this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 070/10 kt. Emily made landfall on Anna Maria Island, Florida, around 1445Z. Since that time, the depression has been moving steadily eastward to east-northeastward, and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Emily emerging off the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning, and then accelerating northeastward ahead of a digging mid-level trough and frontal system through the remainder of the forecast period. There is high confidence that Emily will not directly affect the southeastern United States after the small cyclone emerges over the Atlantic Ocean. The new NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Some additional weakening is possible tonight while Emily moves across the central Florida peninsula and entrains more dry air from the north and west of the system. However, once the compact cyclone emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, some gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin while the vertical wind shear is modest at around 15 kt. By 48 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt, which should act to cap Emily's intensity until the cyclone dissipates or merges with a frontal system in 96-120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain tropical storm status when it exits the Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area. The primary threat with Emily will continue to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the southeastern Florida peninsula through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 27.8N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 01/0600Z 28.4N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 01/1800Z 29.9N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 35.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 38.1N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emily (AT1/AL062017)
2017-07-31 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Emily was located near 27.8, -81.7 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Emily Public Advisory Number 4
2017-07-31 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 312043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 81.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SEBRING FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the remainder of the Florida west coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 81.7 West. Emily is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon and early evening. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to move farther inland over the central Florida peninsula this evening, and move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while Emily moves across the central Florida peninsula tonight. Slow strengthening is forecast after Emily emerges over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across southeast Florida, with isolated storm totals up to 8 inches possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Emily Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-07-31 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 312043 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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