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Tropical Depression Emily Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 011440 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 41
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 011440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Irwin Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Irwin basically consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. Dvorak numbers have continued to decrease, and assuming that winds have diminished since the last ASCAT pass about 8 hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The cyclone is already moving over cold waters of about 22 deg C. On this basis, weakening should continue, and Irwin is anticipated to become a remnant low this afternoon. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 25.9N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z 29.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2017-08-01 16:39:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 011439 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-08-01 16:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Irwin was located near 25.9, -129.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Irwin Public Advisory Number 41
2017-08-01 16:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 011438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Irwin Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 ...IRWIN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 129.2W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Irwin was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 129.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest should begin later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Irwin is forecast to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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