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Tropical Depression Emily Graphics
2017-08-01 17:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 15:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 15:40:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-08-01 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011440 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 After an earlier convective hiatus, recent satellite, radar, and lightning data indicate that thunderstorm activity has redeveloped within 20 nmi of the low-level center. Although the small circulation is somewhat elongated northeast-to-southwest, I am hesitant to discontinue advisories on Emily at this time in case the new convection persists. Buoy 41010 southeast of the center has been reporting sustained winds of 25-29 kt at a 4-meter elevation early this morning, but the initial intensity will remain at 25 kt since convection has only recently redeveloped. Emily has made the anticipated turn toward the northeast and is now moving 050/12 kt. The depression is embedded in southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving, deep-layer trough and frontal system. Emily is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the western Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period, remain well offshore of the southeast and east coasts of the United States. The new official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track, and is between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Emily is expected to remain ahead of a cold front for the next 24 hours or so, which could allow for some slight strengthening while the southwesterly vertical wind shear remains in the 10-15-kt range. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to steadily increase, exceeding 30 kt by 60 h, resulting in Emily becoming an extratropical or post-tropical remnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory, and is similar to the the consensus model IVCN and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.3N 78.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 32.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 33.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z 35.3N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 37.6N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z 39.0N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emily (AT1/AL062017)
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Emily was located near 29.3, -78.9 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Emily Public Advisory Number 7
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011440 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 78.9W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to move away from Florida today and remain well off the southeastern U.S. coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but Emily is also forecast to lose its tropical characteristics within a day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 011440 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 78.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 78.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.1N 75.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.9N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.6N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 39.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 78.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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