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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-07-23 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230248 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 39 11(50) 1(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 115W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 40(64) 5(69) 1(70) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 4(31) X(31) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 16(37) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-07-23 04:48:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 230248 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.6N 115.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.7N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2017-07-22 23:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 21:34:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 21:34:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2017-07-22 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 20:47:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 21:41:11 GMT
Tags: graphics
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-22 22:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222044 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Recent ASCAT data confirmed that the depression has not become any better organized and that the low-level center is on the southern edge of the main convection. T-numbers have remain either steady or decrease slightly, so the initial intensity has been kept at 30 kt at this time. Despite the current lack of organization, the cyclone is expected to be in a very favorable environment of low shear and over warm waters. With these conditions, I have no option but to forecast strengthening. This process will probably be slow during the next day or so, but after that time, the cyclone should strengthen at a faster pace and become a hurricane. This follows the latest intensity guidance which suggest that the most rapid increase in the winds should occur beyond 48 hours. The depression appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 11 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and global models continue to forecast a strong ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern will keep the cyclone on the same general west-northwestward track for the next 5 days, as indicated by the general guidance. This solution is not different from the previous NHC track forecasts which have been keeping the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.5N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 11.2N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 12.2N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 13.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 13.7N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.0N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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