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Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory Number 1
2017-07-31 11:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 310948 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 83.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from the Anclote River southward to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Englewood Florida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.5 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move inland over the central Florida peninsula later today and move across central Florida through tonight. The depression is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression SIX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-07-31 11:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 310948 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1000 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 AT 1000Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 17(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X 17(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) TAMPA FL 34 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Greg Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-07-26 16:51:41| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 26 2017
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Tropical Depression Greg Public Advisory Number 37
2017-07-26 16:50:38| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...GREG FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... Location: 18.1°N 141.0°W Max sustained: 30 mph Moving: W at 12 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 26 2017
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Tropical Depression Greg Forecast Advisory Number 37
2017-07-26 16:50:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2017
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