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Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics
2017-07-22 16:59:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 14:59:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 15:32:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-22 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221455 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 I thought there was no more room for another cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin, but nature managed to produce another one. The disturbance that NHC has been monitoring for several days has finally developed enough circulation and convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the sixth cyclone that has formed in the month of July. The center is located on the northern edge of a circular mass of deep convection and, based of an average of Dvorak numbers, it is being assigned an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is in between TS Greg and TD 9-E, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening. However, most of the global models show a decrease of the shear in the next few days, and this will allow some intensification. The depression is trapped south of a subtropical ridge and is moving toward the west at about 6 kt. The nose of the ridge is forecast to amplify westward, and this flow pattern will likely force the cyclone on a slow west and then west-southwest track during the next five days. Most of the guidance agree with this solution, but one must use caution since there could be some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E which increases the forecast uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 13.5N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-22 16:54:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...THE SIXTH JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 14.7, -112.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1
2017-07-22 16:54:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221454 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...THE SIXTH JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 112.8W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 112.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-07-22 16:54:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221454 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 5 50(55) 12(67) 3(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 115W 50 X 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 44(51) 14(65) 2(67) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) 1(28) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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