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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-22 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221454 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 The depression has failed to strengthen as previously indicated, and both the circulation and the convection are not currently as organized as it seemed to be 24 hours ago when advisories were initiated. Microwave data reveal that the center appears to be located on the south side of the main convection, and the low and mid-level centers are not aligned. Based on Dvorak numbers, the maximum winds are estimated at 30 kt. Having said that, the depression is expected to move through a very favorable moist environment of low shear during the next several days, and the ocean is plenty warm. With these conditions present, the NHC forecast insists on strengthening and still anticipates that the depression will become a hurricane in about 48 hours. Guidance is a little bit less aggressive than earlier but still forecasts intensification. With the low-level center difficult to locate, the initial motion has become uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 10 kt. A persistent subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific will keep steering the cyclone on the same general track for the next five days. This is the solution provided by track guidance which, in fact, is tightly clustered. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope, and is not very different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 10.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 10.5N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 11.6N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 12.5N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 13.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-07-22 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221454 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.8N 113.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-07-22 16:53:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221453 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 30(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 100W 34 13 11(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 33(64) 3(67) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 2(35) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 11(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 37(49) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-07-22 16:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221453 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 98.2W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 98.2W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.5N 99.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.6N 101.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 98.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-22 16:53:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR IT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 the center of NINE-E was located near 10.0, -98.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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