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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-06-28 22:44:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 282044 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 6(38) 2(40) 1(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-06-28 22:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 282043 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.8W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.8W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 105.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2013-06-30 07:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2013 05:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2013 03:04:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042013)
2013-06-30 07:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 11:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 14.3, -103.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2013-06-30 07:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300532 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 103.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATER ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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