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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-06-29 10:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-29 05:08:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 02:38:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 03:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-06-29 04:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 16(35) 5(40) 3(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-29 04:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 28 the center of FOUR-E was located near 14.6, -107.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 2
2014-06-29 04:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 107.4W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS THEN FORECAST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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