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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-29 23:08:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 20:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 21:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-06-29 22:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292040 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 Satellite images suggest that the depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized since this morning. Deep convection near the center has decreased, while convection remains concentrated in a long band over the western semicircle of the circulation. A partial ASCAT overpass at 1722 UTC continues to indicate a large and sprawling cyclonic envelope associated with the depression, with the strongest winds well removed from the center of circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates are a 2.5 and 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 1800 UTC. Given the lack of change in the system's organization, the initial intensity estimate is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. The center is still not obvious, even in visible satellite imagery, and thus the initial motion estimate, or 295/14, is as uncertain as it was previously. The cyclone should continue to move at a fast clip on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken and shift westward during the next couple of days when a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moves into the California coast. This should cause a notable reduction in the forward speed of the cyclone during this time, with the track becoming more westerly after that once the storm becomes more shallow in nature. The NHC track forecast remains on the left side of the guidance envelope, slightly to the left of and slower than the previous one through 36 hours. The forecast track is adjusted to the right and is slower beyond 36 hours but is not as far right as the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus TVCE. Low shear and warm waters along the depression's track should favor intensification for another day or possibly two, but the large size and slow evolution of inner core suggests that any strengthening will only be gradual. Cooler waters and a drier and more stable atmosphere should bring any intensification to a halt in about two days, with slow but steady weakening after that time in the absence of any significant shear. The thermodynamics should become increasingly unfavorable late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now forecast on day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 72 hours but a bit lower after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.7N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.8N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.8N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-29 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 16.5, -111.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 5
2014-06-29 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 292037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 111.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H ...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-06-29 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 292037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 2 37(39) 12(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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