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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-07-07 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 109.9W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was estimated near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 109.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Thursday, and this motion should continue for the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-07-07 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2016-07-06 23:12:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 20:35:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 21:06:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-06 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt. A weak low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days, followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope. The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days. However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours. This is expected to allow only slow intensification during that time. Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and strengthen at a faster rate. The intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about 96 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-06 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.2, -109.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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