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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 4
2014-06-29 16:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 291443 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 110.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H ...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-06-29 16:40:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291440 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.3W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.3W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 117.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-29 11:10:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 08:53:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 09:04:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-06-29 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this morning, with some deep convective banding features trying to develop. Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does not yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is below tropical storm strength. This is also in agreement with Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The current intensity is held at 30 kt based on those estimates. The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the west-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high pressure area that is currently situated to the north of the cyclone. Global models predict that this high pressure area will shift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness developing to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the forecast period. Consequently, the system should gradually slow its forward speed within the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the latest ECMWF solution. The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues against any rapid strengthening. Nonetheless, vertical shear is forecast to remain low and the system will be traversing sufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next few days. The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-29 10:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 15.3, -108.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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