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Tropical Storm NARDA Graphics
2013-10-07 05:08:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2013 02:37:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2013 03:04:46 GMT
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narda
Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-10-07 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NUDGED UPWARD...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND A CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE. THIS MAKES THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM NARDA. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE LOW BY 48 HOURS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. NARDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING NARDA TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN THE STORM MOVES INTO A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW NARDA BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM SHOW THE SYSTEM STALLING AND THEN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THOSE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 13.5N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.0N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.8N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.5N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.1N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 16.4N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 16.7N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-10-07 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 1 1 1 5 22 TROP DEPRESSION 11 14 8 3 5 25 48 TROPICAL STORM 88 76 63 46 53 62 29 HURRICANE 1 9 28 50 41 9 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 9 23 36 32 8 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 7 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 2 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 50KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-07 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NARDA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 the center of NARDA was located near 13.2, -119.8 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm NARDA Public Advisory Number 2
2013-10-07 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NARDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 119.8W ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND NARDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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