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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-10-08 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081431 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS MORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY FALLEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-10-08 16:31:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 081431 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 9 20 21 25 36 35 TROP DEPRESSION 32 46 46 43 44 45 48 TROPICAL STORM 66 43 32 34 30 19 17 HURRICANE 1 2 2 3 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 3 1 X X HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-08 16:31:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 8 the center of NARDA was located near 15.6, -126.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm NARDA Public Advisory Number 8
2013-10-08 16:31:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 081431 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 ...NARDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 126.4W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-10-08 16:31:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081430 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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