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Tropical Storm NARDA Graphics
2013-10-08 11:08:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2013 08:42:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2013 09:04:48 GMT
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narda
Summary for Tropical Storm NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-08 10:41:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA WEAKENS AND NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 8 the center of NARDA was located near 15.3, -125.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NARDA Public Advisory Number 7
2013-10-08 10:41:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080840 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 ...NARDA WEAKENS AND NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 125.4W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-10-08 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080840 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NARDA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM SAB HAS FALLEN TO 35 KT. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE AROUND 45 KT. BASED ON THESE NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS REQUIRED IN THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...NARDA APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT DUE TO A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STORM CONTINUES WESTWARD...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NARDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW...BUT THEN SHOWS RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY DAY 4. NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND ITS CURRENT MOTION IS 290/11 KT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING NARDA IN A COL REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD BY 48 AND 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...NARDA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.3N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.3N 129.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 16.3N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-10-08 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080840 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 7 20 30 40 TROP DEPRESSION 3 9 19 28 42 46 45 TROPICAL STORM 91 76 65 55 36 23 15 HURRICANE 6 14 12 9 2 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 13 11 8 2 1 X HUR CAT 2 X 2 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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