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Tropical Storm NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-10-07 10:41:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070840 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 5 23 TROP DEPRESSION 3 2 3 2 6 26 49 TROPICAL STORM 91 59 45 40 54 61 27 HURRICANE 6 38 52 58 39 8 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 34 39 39 32 7 1 HUR CAT 2 X 4 9 13 5 1 X HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 6 2 X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 65KT 50KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-07 10:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 the center of NARDA was located near 13.2, -120.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm NARDA Public Advisory Number 3
2013-10-07 10:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070840 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 ...NARDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 120.9W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NARDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-10-07 10:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070840 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS BEEN GETTING MORE ORGANIZED. A LONG CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND CONNECTS TO AN INNER RING OF CONVECTION THAT IS OPEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...AS WELL AS ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES NEAR 40 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NARDA MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. OCEAN WATERS ARE PLENTY WARM AT AROUND 28C...AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE FAVORS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH LIE AT THE UPPER RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12 KT. NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. WEST COAST...CAUSING NARDA TO SLOW TO A CRAWL BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD BY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING ADVECTED MORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE NOAA FIM MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 13.2N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 13.6N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 14.2N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.5N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 15.7N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 15.9N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-10-07 10:40:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070840 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 120.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 120.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.6N 122.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.2N 124.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 127.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.7N 129.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 130.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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