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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-10-08 10:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080840 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 125.4W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 125.4W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 126.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 128.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.3N 129.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.3N 130.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm NARDA Graphics
2013-10-08 05:08:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2013 02:44:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2013 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-10-08 04:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080257 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 COMPARED TO 12 HOUR AGO...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NARDA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED. HOWEVER...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INTENSITY STEADY AT 55 KT. DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/10 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT NEARS A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 130W. AFTER THAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NARDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. NARDA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C SSTS IN 12-18 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NARDA TO MAKE ONE MORE INTENSIFICATION EFFORT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DESK THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INGESTED TODAY. BY 36-48 HOURS...NARDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD GENERATE EVEN GREATER WEAKENING...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE THERAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.9N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 16.0N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 15.9N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-08 04:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 the center of NARDA was located near 14.6, -125.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm NARDA Public Advisory Number 6
2013-10-08 04:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 ...NARDA NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 125.0W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... AND NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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