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Tropical Depression NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-10-09 16:42:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 24 27 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 56 48 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 19 24 27 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression NARDA Graphics
2013-10-09 11:08:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2013 08:36:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2013 09:04:48 GMT
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narda
Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-09 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NARDA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A BIT LONGER. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT. NARDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WESTWARD. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1800Z 15.9N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 14.8N 133.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-09 10:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 9 the center of NARDA was located near 16.8, -128.3 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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narda
Tropical Depression NARDA Public Advisory Number 11
2013-10-09 10:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 ...NARDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 128.3W ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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