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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-10-07 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072043 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 AFTER INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...NARDA APPEARS TO HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A 1625 UTC SSMI/S PASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN DEGRADED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FIXES DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND MAKE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT 285/13. NARDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL HAVE LESS EFFECT ON NARDA WHILE IT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS MUCH FASTER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHILE IT PASSES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE PROXIMITY OF A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LURKING TO THE NORTHWEST...THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW NARDA TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE U.S. WEST COAST TROUGH AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING... WITH THE SHEAR BECOMING QUITE STRONG AND LIKELY CAUSING NARDA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM...BUT HIGHER THAN THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 14.8N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.4N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.8N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-10-07 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 072043 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 4 19 27 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 2 4 21 44 49 TROPICAL STORM 67 45 36 49 63 36 23 HURRICANE 33 53 62 46 12 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 31 45 44 34 11 2 1 HUR CAT 2 1 6 14 9 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 4 3 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 70KT 65KT 50KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-10-07 22:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 072043 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.7W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.7W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm NARDA Graphics
2013-10-07 17:08:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2013 14:46:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2013 15:04:44 GMT
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narda
Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-10-07 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071445 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 NARDA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING...WITH A LONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSSIBLE PARTIAL EYEWALL BUT WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DVORAK ESTIMATES IS SELECTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. NARDA SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST IN A FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM SUCCUMBING TO SHEAR AND TURNING WESTWARD SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE GFS PREDICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING WESTWARD. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL NORTHWARD RELOCATION AND TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ASSUMES A DEEPER CYCLONE THAN FORECAST BY THE ECMWF. NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PASSING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW NARDA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE SOON. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE NARDA TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAY 4...AND NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS UNCHANGED AT LONG RANGE...IT IS VERY SENSITIVE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A DEEPER/STRONGER CYCLONE LIKELY MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 16.5N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 16.7N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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