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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 15

2017-10-12 22:37:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122037 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 Ophelia's structure has continued to improve during the afternoon. The eye of the hurricane has cleared and is surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -55 deg C. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT have increased accordingly, and on that basis the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt. Ophelia is nearly stationary, which could cause the hurricane to stop strengthening, or even weaken slightly during the next 12 to 24 hours due to upwelling effects. That said, the intensity guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia will remain at hurricane strength for the next 48 h while it remains in a fairly unstable, low-shear environment. Beyond that time, extratropical transition will begin, though baroclinic forcing will likely keep post-tropical Ophelia near hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the UK. The new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is generally close to the multi-model intensity consensus. Although Ophelia is currently stationary, a mid-latitude trough should cause it to begin moving toward the east-northeast within about 24 hours. The cyclone will then accelerate on that heading in the faster mid-latitude westerly flow ahead of the trough, before turning toward the northeast around day 3 as extratropical transition occurs and the hurricane becomes entangled with the southern extent of the trough. Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 72 h, and all of the dynamical guidance is tightly clustered through this period. The model spread increases substantially at 96 h and beyond. As a post-tropical cyclone, Ophelia will continue to interact with the southern extent of the trough, and should turn toward the northeast as a result of this interaction. However, the details of this turn vary greatly from model to model. The new NHC forecast has been nudged slightly toward the east at this time range, closer to the UKMET and ECMWF models, as well as the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE. While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia south and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores by Sunday due to an approaching front. In addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post- tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas, as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 30.4N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 31.0N 34.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 31.9N 32.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2017-10-12 22:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 122037 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 17(29) X(29) X(29) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)

2017-10-12 22:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 12 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.4, -35.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 15

2017-10-12 22:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 ...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Ophelia is currently meandering, but a east-northeast motion is expected to begin tonight. A east-northeast motion is forecast to continue after that with a substantial increase in forward speed by this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will remain south of the Azores through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Ophelia is expected to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Santa Maria Island of the Azores Saturday and Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over Santa Maria Island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 15

2017-10-12 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 122036 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 34.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.9N 32.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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