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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 9

2021-09-02 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 022046 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 ...LARRY LIKELY TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 35.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 35.8 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. A turn to the northwest is then expected by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant to possibly rapid intensification is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2021-09-02 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 022046 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-09-02 22:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 022045 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 35.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 105SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 35.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 38.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.7N 41.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.7N 43.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.1N 57.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 35.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-09-02 16:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021451 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 Larry continues to gradually become better organized this morning, with a small but cold CDO near the estimated center, and well defined curved bands rotating completely around. Unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave passes over the center in the last 6-9 hours. However, I did receive a helpful ASCAT-B pass at 1128 UTC which indicated that while the inner core remains quite small, the 34-kt wind radii have expanded dramatically in all quadrants. The most recent Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both CI 4.0/65 kt from SAB and TAFB. However, the objective intensity estimates from SATCON and ADT are higher, at 70 kt and 77 kt respectively. Thus, the current intensity of Larry was nudged upward to 70 kt for this advisory. The hurricane's heading has changed little this morning, estimated at 280/15 kt. There also remains little change to the forecast track reasoning. A dominant mid-level ridge is located north of Larry and should maintain the hurricane on a west to west-northwest heading over the next 72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement over this time period. After 72 hours, a bit more track guidance spread begins to take shape, which appears related to the evolution of the the steering ridge orientation. For example, the most recent GFS run begins a more pronounced rightward bend, as the ridge becomes positioned northeast of the tropical cyclone. In contrast, the ECMWF and a number of its left-leaning ensemble members maintain more ridging directly north of Larry, keeping the hurricane on a more leftward track with only a gradual bend to the west-northwest and northwest. These differences notwithstanding, the consensus aids has changed little from the previous forecast cycle, and the NHC forecast track is nearly identical to the previous track. This track lies very close to the HCCA consensus aid, which favors a track solution a bit closer to the ECMWF versus the GFS. Larry's environmental conditions appear very favorable for additional intensification over the next 60-72 hours. In fact, the primarily forecast challenge relates to how Larry's core structure evolves over the next several days. Right now, the inner-core and hurricane-force wind radii are very small relative to the expanding tropical-storm-force wind field around the storm. Thus, it appears likely that Larry will undergo some form of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) in the next 12 to 24 hours, which may slow down the short term intensification rate. However, once this cycle is complete, very light easterly vertical wind shear between 2-8 kt, abundant mid-level moisture, and sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures between 27-28 C should favor steady to rapid intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 120 kt in roughly 72 hours, which is a faster and slightly higher peak than the prior forecast. Afterwards, the guidance is a bit conflicted. The GFS-based SHIPS continues to suggests low vertical wind shear through the end of the forecast period. However, the ECMWF-based SHIPS shows much higher southwesterly vertical wind shear beginning in 84 hours as Larry also moves into a drier environment. It is also possible additional ERCs may occur in the latter portion of this forecast, resulting in additional intensity fluctuations. For these reasons, the intensity forecast at the end of the period shows some modest weakening. This intensity forecast is a bit higher than the HCCA corrected consensus aid, but remains lower than some of the more aggressive guidance (COAMPS-TC, the experimental HAFS-B). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.5N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 17.9N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.8N 53.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 24.6N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

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