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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2021-09-02 16:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 021441 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

2021-09-02 16:41:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LARRY IS LARGER AND A BIT STRONGER... ...STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 2 the center of Larry was located near 13.5, -34.2 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 8

2021-09-02 16:41:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 ...LARRY IS LARGER AND A BIT STRONGER... ...STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 34.2W ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.2 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed are expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center. Recent satellite wind data indicates that the tropical-storm-force wind radii are expanding and now extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-09-02 16:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 021439 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 135SE 90SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 53.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 34.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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