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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-02 10:46:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020846 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 Larry's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized, with deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the center and a banding-type eye trying to form. Upper-level outflow is most prominent over the western and northern portions of the circulation. A well-defined low-level eye was apparent on an AMSR-2 image from a few hours ago. Dvorak final T- and Current Intensity-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0/4.0, corresponding to an intensity of 65 kt. Based on these estimates, Larry is upgraded to a hurricane, the fifth of the 2021 Atlantic season. The hurricane is moving just slightly north of west, or 280/17 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory. Larry is likely to move along the southern and southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical high pressure area over the east-central Atlantic during the next few days. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours. A turn toward the northwest is likely in 4-5 days as the system approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track models are fairly well clustered on this future direction of motion with some differences in forward speed. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Larry is expected to remain in an environment conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with marginally warm SSTs, low vertical shear, and surrounded by broad-scale anticyclonic upper-level flow. Therefore, strengthening is likely, and the official forecast calls for Larry to become a major hurricane in 48 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacements are possible around and after that time. Late in the forecast period, slightly drier air in the environment could limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.0N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-02 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 2 the center of Larry was located near 13.0, -32.3 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 7
2021-09-02 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 ...LARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 32.3W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 32.3 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Friday and Friday night. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-02 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 020843 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-02 10:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020842 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 32.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 32.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 31.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 32.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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