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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-02 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 30.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 33.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.6N 36.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 42.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.1N 51.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 30.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Larry Graphics
2021-09-01 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 20:38:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 20:38:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-01 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 012035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-01 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 012035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Afternoon satellite imagery indicates that Larry continues to become better organized, with visible imagery hinting at eye formation and a partial SSM/IS overpass suggesting that a 37 GHz convective ring is present around the center. Satellite intensity estimates are now 65 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB, and the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt, which is a 30 kt increase since this time yesterday satisfying the 24-h definition of rapid intensification. The initial motion is now 275/19 kt. Larry is expected to move around the south and southwest sides of a subtropical ridge during the next five days, with a general westward motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. The spread in the track guidance after 36 h has decreased a little in the latest model runs. However, the guidance envelope has again shifted a little to the west. The new forecast track will also be shifted a little westward, and it lies on the southern edge of the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for additional rapid intensification during at the next 36-48 h, and the intensity forecast now calls for Larry to become a hurricane in less than 12 h and become a major hurricane in about 48 h. Given current trends, this part of the intensity forecast could be conservative. There is lower confidence in the intensity forecast after 48 h. Larry is expected to encounter somewhat increased shear, and around the 72 h point it is expected to encounter some dry air. After 96 h, moderate shear is forecast to continue, but the cyclone is expected to move into a more moist air mass and over increasing sea surface temperatures. On top of these factors, there is the good chance that Larry will have fluctuations in intensity after it becomes a major hurricane due to eyewall replacement cycles. The intensity guidance basically keeps a steady intensity from 60-120 h, and the official forecast follows that trend. However, this part of the intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance, and it is possible Larry could be stronger than forecast during this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.5N 29.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.6N 31.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.0N 34.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.7N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.6N 40.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 15.6N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 50.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Larry Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-01 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 012035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...LARRY STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 29.4W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 29.4 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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