je.st
news
Tag: irwin
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 25
2017-07-28 16:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 281436 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.2N 125.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm IRWIN Graphics
2017-07-28 10:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 08:45:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 09:33:14 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
irwin
Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-07-28 10:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280839 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Although conventional satellite imagery shows recent improvement in the banding feature wrapping around the eastern half of the cyclone, an ambiguity solution of a 0514 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicates that Irwin has weakened. Based on the scatterometer data and a blend of the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. The CIMSS wind shear analysis and the SHIPS model both indicate that moderate northeasterly shear, produced by an anticyclone to the north, will be the primary inhibitor for any significant strengthening prior to Irwin's demise in 4 days. Little change in the cyclone's intensity is forecast before the merging of Irwin with Tropical Storm Hilary occurs around the 96 hour period. The initial motion estimate continues as a drift toward the west, or 270/02 kt. The large-scale models indicate this slow motion, or meander, continuing through the 36 hour period. Afterward, Irwin is expected to accelerate northward around the eastern peripheral flow of Hilary. The global and regional models also generally agree with the merging of the two tropical cyclones to occur in 4 days, or less. The official forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous track forecast beyond 36 hours to align more closely to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 14.9N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 14.9N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 15.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 17.4N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 22.0N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm IRWIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2017-07-28 10:39:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280839 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 84 13(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 27 23(50) 5(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 125W 64 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 42(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm IRWIN (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-28 10:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN DRIFTING WESTWARD...A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of IRWIN was located near 14.9, -124.8 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
irwin
Sites : [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] next »