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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 8

2014-07-02 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020858 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 Elida has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more than 12 hours, and there currently isn't even a thunderstorm within 250 nmi of the center. Therefore, Elida is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on a 02/0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass, which indicated that 26-kt winds existed in the southern quadrant. The remnant low is drifting east-southeastward to southeastward at around 2 kt. The low is expected to meander offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today before turning westward on Thursday, and continue moving in that direction until it dissipates in a couple of days. Although the ocean is very warm and the atmosphere is quite moist, hostile northwesterly vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is expected to prevent regeneration into a tropical cyclone. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.9N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 02/1800Z 16.7N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/0600Z 16.6N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 16.6N 103.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)

2014-07-02 10:56:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ELIDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 the center of ELIDA was located near 16.9, -103.0 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA Public Advisory Number 8

2014-07-02 10:56:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 020856 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ELIDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 103.0W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2014-07-02 10:56:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 020856 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 8

2014-07-02 10:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 020855 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 103.0W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 103.0W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 102.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 102.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 103.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 103.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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