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Tropical Depression ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 7

2014-07-02 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 020251 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 103.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 103.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 103.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.1N 104.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Graphics

2014-07-01 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 20:37:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 20:35:45 GMT

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-07-01 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 012036 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Strong northwesterly wind shear persists over Elida, and the cyclone has become a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots. These winds are probably confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. Global models indicate that the shear will continue and, in fact, most of them weaken Elida to a low or a trough in a few days. The NHC forecast is along the line of such models. Elida continues to be trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has been drifting southeastward during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Elida or its remnants to begin moving slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the multi-model consensus trend. The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning, however, a few strong squalls could still affect the coast during the next 12 to 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.2N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)

2014-07-01 22:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ELIDA DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.2, -103.9 with movement SE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 6

2014-07-01 22:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 012035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...ELIDA DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 103.9W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COLIMA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WINDS IN GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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