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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 3

2014-07-01 04:45:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 010245 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.4W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.4W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 104.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 104.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.4N 104.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.3N 104.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 105.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-07-01 04:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010244 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Overall, the organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little during the past 6 to 12 hours. The center briefly became exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass this afternoon due to moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Since that time, a new burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops has developed near and over the the center. The intitial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 3.0 from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data. Recent microwave images show that Elida has slowed down considerably today, and the initial motion estimate is 290/2 kt. The global model guidance indicates that Elida will remain within an area of weak steering currents during the next couple of days. During this time, the tropical storm is expected to meander just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which should cause Elida to move westward at a faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the previous forecast during the first few days. Little change in strength is expected during the next two to three days while Elida remains within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear. After Elida begins moving westward later in the period, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of lower vertical wind shear, which could allow for some slight intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and is in good agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.5N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 17.5N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.4N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 17.3N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 17.1N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 17.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)

2014-07-01 04:44:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ELIDA EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.4, -104.4 with movement WNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 3

2014-07-01 04:44:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 010243 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...ELIDA EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 104.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON TUESDAY...AND MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ELIDA AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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