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Tropical Storm ELIDA Graphics

2014-07-01 17:18:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 14:36:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 15:07:16 GMT

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-07-01 16:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 011435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Strong northwesterly wind shear continues over Elida, and satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center is located on the northern edge of the deep convection. Since the cloud pattern has lost some organization since yesterday, the Dvorak T-numbers suggest a weaker cyclone. The initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 knots at this time. The shear over Elida is forecast to continue during the next couple of days, and consequently, no significant change in intensity is anticipated. Elida could re-strengthen a little when the shear relaxes beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is consistent with the intensity guidance which shows no important change in strength in 5 days. Elida is trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has barely moved during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Elida to begin slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the multi-model consensus trend. Given the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has adjusted the area of the tropical storm warning, and if Elida continues to weaken as it moves away from the coast, the tropical storm warning would likely be discontinued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)

2014-07-01 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ELIDA NEARLY STATIONARY AND A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.4, -104.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 5

2014-07-01 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 011435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...ELIDA NEARLY STATIONARY AND A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 104.3W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. ELIDA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF ELIDA AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COLIMA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2014-07-01 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 011435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 2 X( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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