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Tropical Storm Max Graphics

2017-09-15 04:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 02:38:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 02:38:19 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Max (EP1/EP162017)

2017-09-15 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MAX RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Max was located near 16.8, -98.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Max Public Advisory Number 8

2017-09-15 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Max Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...MAX RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 98.5W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 98.5 West. Max is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion should continue through early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Max will move farther inland over southern Mexico tonight and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Max is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight and dissipate over southern Mexico early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of southern Mexico will subside overnight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Max Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2017-09-15 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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