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Hurricane Max Public Advisory Number 5
2017-09-14 13:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 141152 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Max Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...MAX BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 100.4W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado to a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Max was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 100.4 West. Max is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). An east or east-northeast motion is expected to continue until Max moves inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Max moves inland. Weakening is forecast after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin soon within the warning area. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Max Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-09-14 13:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 141152 TCMEP1 HURRICANE MAX SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 1200 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO TO A HURRICANE WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.4W AT 14/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.4W AT 14/1200Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.6N 99.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 100.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Max Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-09-14 13:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141152 PWSEP1 HURRICANE MAX SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 1200 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 92 4(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ACAPULCO 50 34 14(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ACAPULCO 64 15 10(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) P MALDONADO 34 11 31(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) P MALDONADO 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P MALDONADO 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Max Graphics
2017-09-14 10:42:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 08:42:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 08:42:04 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Max (EP1/EP162017)
2017-09-14 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Max was located near 16.6, -100.5 with movement ENE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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