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Hurricane Max Public Advisory Number 6A
2017-09-14 19:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 141751 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Max Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...MAX STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF ACAPULCO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 99.4W ABOUT 35 MI...70 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Max was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 99.4 West. Max is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward or east-northeastward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Max is forecast to cross the coast of southern Mexico in the hurricane warning area later today or this evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible before the center of Max reaches the coast later today. Weakening is forecast once Max makes landfall, and it is expected to dissipate over the mountains of southern Mexico by late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by this evening, with hurricane conditions possible tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Max Graphics
2017-09-14 16:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:41:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:41:30 GMT
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Hurricane Max Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-14 16:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Max Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Max continues to have a well-defined eye in radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, even though the eye that was observed in earlier infrared satellite imagery has become obscured. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are up to T4.0/65 kt, but given the hurricane's structure as seen in radar data, the initial intensity is set slightly higher at 70 kt. Radar animations indicate that Max's eye has been moving just north of due east, and the initial motion is estimated to be 085/5 kt. Max is located to the north of a mid-level ridge extending southwest of Guatemala, and the flow around this ridge should force the hurricane to move eastward or east-northeastward across the coast of Guerrero or Oaxaca by this evening or tonight. After landfall, Max should move farther inland over southern Mexico. With sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius and relatively low shear, the environment appears conducive for further strengthening before Max reaches the coast. The new NHC forecast closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance and shows a little more intensification during the next 12 hours than was indicated in the previous advisory. Max will weaken quickly after landfall, and is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by 36 hours. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.3N 99.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.5N 99.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 16.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Max Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-09-14 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141435 PWSEP1 HURRICANE MAX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ACAPULCO 50 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ACAPULCO 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 79 14(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) P MALDONADO 50 23 34(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) P MALDONADO 64 6 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Max (EP1/EP162017)
2017-09-14 16:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAX MOVING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Max was located near 16.3, -99.9 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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