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Hurricane Max Public Advisory Number 6
2017-09-14 16:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Max Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...MAX MOVING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 99.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch east of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Max was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 99.9 West. Max is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward or east-northeastward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Max is forecast to cross the coast of southern Mexico in the hurricane warning area this evening or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today before Max reaches the coast this evening or tonight. Weakening is forecast once Max makes landfall, and it is expected to dissipate over the mountains of southern Mexico by late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within portions of the hurricane warning area, and hurricane conditions should begin in that area later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by this evening, with hurricane conditions possible tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Hurricane Max Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-09-14 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 141434 TCMEP1 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 99.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 99.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.5N 99.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 98.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 99.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Max Graphics
2017-09-14 13:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 11:57:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 11:57:28 GMT
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Hurricane Max Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-14 13:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141153 TCDEP1 Hurricane Max Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, indicates that Max has continued to improve in structure and now has a well-defined eye and closed eyewall. An eye has also occasionally been evident in infrared satellite imagery. Based on these signs, Max has been upgraded to a hurricane with 65-kt winds. Max appears to be cruising eastward just offshore the coast of Mexico. However, the hurricane is still expected to move inland later today. The 12-hour point has been adjusted southward and increased to 75 kt to account for Max's recent motion, possible delayed landfall, and increased opportunity to strengthen before it reaches land. The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado to a Hurricane Warning. Life-threatening flooding rainfall is still expected in portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the regularly scheduled 7 AM CDT intermediate public advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1200Z 16.3N 100.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.6N 99.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.8N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Max (EP1/EP162017)
2017-09-14 13:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAX BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Max was located near 16.3, -100.4 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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