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Tropical Storm Max Graphics

2017-09-14 07:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 05:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 03:39:01 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Max (EP1/EP162017)

2017-09-14 07:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Max was located near 16.5, -100.9 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Max Public Advisory Number 3A

2017-09-14 07:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140536 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 100.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12 to 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 100.9 West. Radar from Mexico indicate that Max is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and an east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Max will make landfall within the warning area later today. Recent satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible, and Max could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. After landfall, Max is forecast to rapidly weaken and dissipate by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across southern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. These rainfall amounts may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin soon within the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Max Graphics

2017-09-14 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 02:39:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 03:39:01 GMT

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Tropical Storm Max Forecast Discussion Number 3

2017-09-14 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140238 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A 2236Z SSMIS pass showed that Max has a banding mid-level eye, and a partial eye has been noted in radar imagery from Acapulco. Given this improved structure, the initial intensity has been set to 50 kt, leaning toward the latest Dvorak classification from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimate. Since Max has developed some inner-core structure, further strengthening seems likely, with the only apparent limiting factor being land interaction in 12 to 24 hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted upward, and now shows Max reaching a 60-kt intensity in 12 h. Since some additional strengthening is possible before landfall, Max could become a hurricane before reaching the coast of Mexico. Quick weakening is forecast after landfall, and Max is expected to dissipate by 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 065/03. Max should be steered east-northeastward to northeastward toward the coast by a mid-level ridge centered to the tropical cyclone's southeast. The new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one, toward the latest consensus aids. Given the new intensity forecast, a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In addition to the increased wind threat, Max will produce life-threatening flooding rainfall in portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.3N 101.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.7N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.9N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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