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Tropical Storm Max Graphics

2017-09-13 22:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:38:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:38:48 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Max (EP1/EP162017)

2017-09-13 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM MAX FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...MAX WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO GUERRERO AND OAXACA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 the center of Max was located near 16.1, -101.4 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Max Public Advisory Number 2

2017-09-13 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 132032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Max Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM MAX FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...MAX WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO GUERRERO AND OAXACA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 101.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has replaced the Tropical Storm Watch with Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.4 West. Max is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion will bring the center of Max inland over Mexico within the warning area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before Max moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across southern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. These rainfall amounts may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin soon within the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Max Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-09-13 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Visible imagery during the day indicate that the cloud pattern has improved in organization and consists of a well-defined cyclonically curved convective band. This band wraps around an area of deep convection where the center is located. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB agree that the cyclone is now a tropical storm with 35 kt winds. A portion of the circulation is already interacting with land, so no significant strengthening is forecast before the center moves inland. The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast. The depression is located at the bottom of a large mid-latitude trough, and this pattern will carry the depression slowly east- northeastward toward the coast of Mexico, and then farther inland. Most of the global models dissipate Max once it moves over the high terrain, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to dissipate in about 48 hour or sooner. The main threat from Max will be torrential rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.1N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Max Forecast Advisory Number 2

2017-09-13 22:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 132032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 97.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 101.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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